Solana Volatilität & Regime SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) volatility regime analysis classifies current market conditions as compression, expansion, or normal for SOL/USDT perpetual futures. Regime transitions — especially compression-to-expansion — produce the most tradeable opportunities.
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Solana Volatility Regime
Solana is currently in a compression volatility regime with realized vol at 5.9% (percentile: 21). Volatility compression in SOL often precedes major breakout moves. The longer compression persists, the more violent the expansion tends to be.
Volatility metrics
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Realized Vol | 5.9% | Below average |
| Vol Percentile | 21th | Current vol is higher than 21% of historical readings |
| Regime | COMPRESSION | Breakout conditions forming |
| Vol-of-Vol | 8.4% | Unstable — regime change likely |
| Z-Score | +0.14 | Normal range |
| ATR(14) | $0.8428 | Average true range — expected per-candle movement |
| Vol Trend | STABLE | Stable volatility |
Regime Transition Probability
Solana's volatility category reads neutral (0). The combination of compression regime with elevated vol-of-vol signals an imminent regime transition. Historical patterns suggest expansion follows within 1-3 trading sessions for SOL.
Signal Category Alignment
| Category | State | Score | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| momentum | bearish | -38 | Bearish |
| liquidity | bearish | -15 | Neutral |
| positioning | mixed | -14 | Neutral |
| smartMoney | bearish | -18 | Bearish |
| volatility | neutral | 0 | Neutral |
Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by a quantitative system processing market data in real time. It is not financial advice. Trading Solana perpetual futures involves substantial risk of loss. Past signal performance does not guarantee future results.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the SOL volatility regime?
Blackperp classifies Solana volatility into three regimes: compression (below-average vol, range-bound price), normal (average vol), and expansion (above-average vol, trending price). Regime transitions — especially compression-to-expansion — often produce the most tradeable moves.
What is vol-of-vol for SOL?
Vol-of-vol measures the volatility of Solana's volatility itself — how much the volatility reading is changing. High vol-of-vol signals unstable market conditions where regime changes are likely. Low vol-of-vol suggests a stable regime that may persist.
How does Blackperp's volatility percentile work for SOL?
The volatility percentile ranks current Solana realized volatility against its historical distribution. A percentile of 90 means current vol is higher than 90% of historical readings. Extreme low percentiles (below 10) often precede major expansion moves.
What is the SOL z-score for volatility?
The z-score measures how many standard deviations Solana's current volatility is from its mean. Scores above +2 indicate extremely high vol (potential exhaustion); below -2 indicate extremely low vol (potential breakout incoming). Blackperp uses this for regime transition detection.
Does SOL have implied volatility data?
Solana does not have a liquid options market, so implied volatility is not available. Blackperp uses realized volatility, ATR, and vol-of-vol to assess the volatility regime for SOL.