BTC Miner Selloff: 61K BTC Supply Shock Hits Perps

Bitcoin's supply-side dynamics are deteriorating sharply. Miner reserves have declined by roughly 61,000 BTC this cycle, with publicly listed operators Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms collectively offloading more than 32,000 BTC during Q1 2026 alone. The liquidation of these holdings — driven by rising energy costs and a strategic pivot toward AI infrastructure investment — is injecting sustained sell pressure into an already fragile spot market.

Prediction Markets Price In Continued Downside

Prediction market data reflects near-unanimous bearish conviction. The April 16 sub-market pricing Bitcoin below $68,000 is sitting at 99.9% YES, backed by $301,452 in actual USDC volume — a figure that signals real capital commitment, not noise. More telling: only $32,199 in additional liquidity would be sufficient to move the April 19 contract by 5 percentage points, underscoring how thin the order book is on the bullish side. The April 30 contract pricing a drop to $60,000 has surged from 20% to 100% YES within a single week — a dramatic shift in market consensus that derivatives traders cannot ignore.

How Does This Affect BTC Perpetual Markets?

Miner distribution events are textbook supply shocks. When large-scale holders convert reserves to fiat or stablecoins to cover operational costs, the resulting spot selling cascades into perpetual markets through several mechanisms. First, spot price suppression widens the basis between perp and spot, compressing funding rates. If longs continue to unwind, funding can flip negative — incentivizing short carry trades. Second, as BTC approaches key support zones, leveraged long positions become increasingly vulnerable to cascading liquidations, amplifying downside velocity beyond what spot selling alone would produce.

The broader macro backdrop adds another layer of complexity. Geopolitical uncertainty — particularly around US-Iran tensions — has historically correlated with risk-off positioning across crypto. Any ceasefire announcement or large institutional accumulation event could trigger a sharp short squeeze, but the current structural setup favors the bears.

What Blackperp's Engine Shows

As of mid-April 2026, Blackperp's engine is registering a lean short bias on BTCUSDT at $75,105 with 62% confidence, operating within a ranging regime at medium volatility — a configuration that typically precedes directional resolution, often to the downside when supply pressure is present.

The liquidation cluster analysis is particularly striking: long-side liquidation exposure stands at $16.66B versus only $7.86B on the short side, producing a net delta of $8.80B skewed toward a long flush. With BTC currently at the 99th percentile of bullish momentum — an extreme reading — the mean reversion signal is active (z-score: 3.05), suggesting the current price level is statistically stretched and prone to correction.

The basis trade signal reinforces this view: combined carry sits at +301.8bps, with annualized funding at +304.5bps and spot basis at -2.7bps. This is a classic setup for short carry traders — elevated funding creates a structural incentive to hold short perp positions while the basis compresses. Key support levels to monitor are $73,222 and $71,728, with resistance capped at $76,797. A break below the first support cluster could trigger a cascade toward the lower liquidation band.

On the altcoin side, NEARUSDT at $1.419 presents a contrarian setup. The engine flags a neutral bias (66% confidence) with deeply negative funding at -260.2% annualized — a crowded short signal. Cross-exchange funding divergence is extreme at 0.2476% spread between Binance (-0.2376%) and OKX (+0.0100%), which typically precedes a mean reversion squeeze. Resistance sits at $1.45–$1.46, with support at $1.39. However, the multi-timeframe trend is fully bearish across 1m, 5m, and 1h — any long entry here requires tight risk management.