Arthur Hayes Turns Cautious on BTC Before Fed Pivot

Hayes Pumps the Brakes on BTC Despite $250K Target

BitMEX co-founder and longtime Bitcoin bull Arthur Hayes has made a notable tactical shift: despite maintaining a $250,000 year-end price target, Hayes stated publicly that he would not deploy capital into Bitcoin at current levels. Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast, Hayes was direct — he is waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve before re-entering.

"If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait," Hayes said, citing ongoing geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran as a key risk factor suppressing his conviction. As of mid-2026, BTC is trading near $69,926, roughly 45% below its October all-time high of $126,000.

Fed Policy, Not War, Is the Real BTC Catalyst

Hayes drew a clear distinction that matters for macro-driven traders: war itself is not the Bitcoin catalyst — money printing is. His thesis is straightforward: prolonged geopolitical conflict forces the Fed's hand toward monetary expansion, and that liquidity injection is the actual trigger for a BTC re-rating.

"The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine," Hayes said. "That's when I'm going to buy Bitcoin — when the central banks start printing money."

This framing is critical for perpetual futures traders. Hayes is not turning bearish on BTC structurally — he is flagging a timing risk. The distinction between a macro-driven bull and a near-term seller has direct implications for funding rates and open interest positioning.

How Does This Affect BTC Perpetual Markets?

Hayes explicitly warned of a potential cascade scenario. If the US-Iran conflict escalates and equities sell off sharply, Bitcoin could breach the $60,000 level — a price point that already acted as brief support on February 6 before a mild recovery. Hayes warned this could trigger "a big cascading of liquidations down."

For perp traders, this is a high-signal data point. As of current market conditions, leveraged long positions accumulated between $65,000 and $72,000 are particularly exposed if spot price deteriorates toward the $60,000 zone. A move of that magnitude would likely flush significant open interest and push funding rates sharply negative as longs get liquidated and shorts temporarily dominate.

Traders should also monitor whether a funding rate inversion — where perpetual funding turns negative — precedes any capitulation wick. Historically, sustained negative funding on BTC perps has coincided with local bottoms, which aligns with Hayes' implicit suggestion that sub-$60,000 levels could represent a structural buying opportunity once the Fed signals easing.

Conflicting Short-Term Signals

Not all analysts share Hayes' patience. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe cited a strong Nasdaq surge as a positive spillover for BTC and altcoins, arguing that macro uncertainty has largely been priced in. This divergence between Hayes' wait-and-see posture and van de Poppe's near-term bullishness reflects the genuine uncertainty currently embedded in derivatives markets.

Hayes did acknowledge that he does not expect Bitcoin to remain below $100,000 for many more years — suggesting the current drawdown, while painful for leveraged longs, is viewed as temporary in a longer-duration framework.