Polymarket Eyes Full US Return via CFTC Talks

Polymarket is in active discussions with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to remove the prohibition on US-based users accessing its main international platform, according to a Bloomberg report published Tuesday. The move would represent the most significant regulatory development for the prediction market operator since its $1.4 million civil penalty settlement with the CFTC in 2022, which mandated US user restrictions over unregistered event contracts.

What's on the Table With the CFTC?

A full reversal of the US ban would require a formal CFTC commission vote. Notably, the report indicates that four commissioner seats are currently vacant — a structural condition that reduces the quorum threshold and could accelerate a decision. Polymarket has already made limited inroads into the US market: in December 2025, it launched a waitlist-only US app focused exclusively on sports contracts, operating through its regulated QCEX-based structure. That setup, however, still blocks American users from its primary international exchange where the bulk of volume and liquidity resides.

How Does This Affect BTC and ETH Perpetual Markets?

On the surface, Polymarket's regulatory pursuit is a prediction market story — but the downstream implications for crypto derivatives traders are real. A fully licensed, US-accessible Polymarket would create a regulated on-chain venue for event-driven speculation, potentially drawing capital that currently flows into crypto perpetual markets as a proxy for macro and political outcomes. During the 2024 US election cycle, Polymarket's political contracts drove measurable spikes in BTC open interest and funding rates as traders hedged directional bets across both platforms simultaneously.

As of late April 2025, the broader regulatory narrative around prediction markets remains unsettled. Wisconsin's attorney general filed suit on April 23 against both Kalshi and Polymarket, alongside Coinbase, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, alleging facilitation of illegal sports betting via event contracts. Separately, the CFTC and Department of Justice last week accused a US military serviceman of using classified information to generate over $400,000 in profits on Polymarket's international exchange — accessed via VPN in violation of existing restrictions. These enforcement actions add legal overhang that could delay or complicate any formal CFTC approval process.

Volume Dynamics: Polymarket vs. Kalshi

Polymarket once commanded over 90% of total monthly notional prediction market volume as recently as November 2024, per Dune Analytics data compiled by Datadashboards. Since September 2025, that dominance has eroded steadily as Kalshi — now an official market partner with Coinbase — captured an increasing share. Paradigm and other institutional players have also questioned the integrity of Polymarket's volume reporting, adding a credibility dimension to the competitive pressure.

For derivatives traders, a Polymarket US relaunch would intensify competition in a sector that is increasingly correlated with crypto market sentiment. Major political and macro event markets on Polymarket have historically preceded volatility expansions in BTC and ETH perps, as traders position across both venues. A regulated, liquid US-accessible version of Polymarket could amplify this dynamic — particularly around high-stakes macro events where prediction market pricing diverges from options-implied probabilities.

What Blackperp's Engine Shows

Blackperp's live engine is currently tracking ENAUSDT — the native token of Ethena, a protocol whose synthetic dollar and yield infrastructure is closely tied to perpetual funding rate dynamics. The engine flags a neutral bias with 60% confidence in a ranging regime with medium volatility. This is worth noting in the context of the broader prediction market narrative, as ENA's funding environment reflects the current state of carry trades across the perp ecosystem.

The Basis Trade signal is the standout: a combined reading of +537.8bps, with annualized funding at +547.5bps and a spot-perp basis of -9.7bps. This configuration — high positive funding against a slightly negative basis — is a textbook crowded-long setup flagging mean reversion risk. The Funding Predictor confirms: +0.5% per period (+547.5% annualized), with the next funding event in approximately 3.32 hours. The Mean Reversion signal is particularly sharp, with a z-score of -2.62 — an extreme stretch that has activated a fade signal.

Signal consensus sits at 62.5% bearish lean with only 25% bull agreement. Key levels to watch: resistance clusters at $0.11 (dual liquidation level confluence) and support at $0.10. Given ENA's structural role in funding rate arbitrage, a flush in crowded ENA longs could have second-order effects on funding normalization across related altcoin perp pairs — a dynamic traders should monitor ahead of the next funding window.