Kalshi Targets U.S. Crypto Perp Futures Market

Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, is preparing to enter the U.S. crypto derivatives space with a perpetual futures offering — a move that could meaningfully shift domestic trading volume dynamics and force established players like Coinbase to accelerate their own regulatory roadmaps.

According to a report from The Information, Kalshi plans to initially offer perpetual futures contracts tied to Bitcoin, with potential expansion into additional tokens and asset classes over time. The company has not publicly confirmed a launch timeline or a full list of supported assets.

What Does Kalshi's Entry Mean for U.S. Perp Markets?

Perpetual futures — derivative contracts with no expiration date that track an underlying asset's price via funding rate mechanisms — have been the dominant trading instrument on offshore venues for years. BitMEX pioneered the structure, and platforms like Binance and Bybit built empires on it. As of April 2026, daily perpetual futures volume across crypto markets sits at roughly $20 billion, per DeFiLlama data — approximately half of prior peak levels, but still substantial enough to represent a significant revenue opportunity for any regulated entrant.

Kalshi's regulatory positioning is arguably its strongest asset here. The firm holds multiple CFTC licenses and recently secured approval to offer margin trading — a prerequisite for running a legitimate perpetuals book. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has publicly signaled that U.S.-regulated crypto derivatives products could launch in the near term, framing the push as an effort to repatriate volume currently flowing to unregulated offshore exchanges.

For perp traders, the practical implication is straightforward: a regulated U.S. venue offering perpetuals could attract institutional flow that currently avoids offshore platforms due to compliance constraints. That shift in open interest distribution would have downstream effects on funding rates and cross-market basis relationships.

Competitive Pressure on Coinbase and the Broader Derivatives Landscape

Coinbase has been the most visible U.S. platform pushing into derivatives, but it has stopped short of launching true perpetuals domestically. Its current derivatives suite targets non-U.S. traders and uses long-dated expiration structures that approximate — but do not replicate — the perpetual model. Kalshi's entry, if executed cleanly, would put direct pressure on Coinbase to accelerate its own perpetuals timeline or risk ceding first-mover advantage in what could become the most liquid segment of U.S. crypto derivatives.

Kraken has launched tokenized stock perpetual futures for non-U.S. users. Crypto.com and Gemini have both moved into prediction market products. And on the same day Kalshi's plans surfaced, rival prediction platform Polymarket announced its own intention to offer perpetual futures — though no structural details were disclosed. The convergence between prediction markets and crypto derivatives is no longer a trend to watch; it is actively reshaping competitive positioning across the sector.

Funding Rates, Liquidations, and What Onshore Volume Means for Volatility

Bringing perpetual futures onshore under CFTC oversight introduces a structural variable that derivatives traders should model carefully. Regulated venues typically impose stricter margin requirements and position limits than offshore counterparts, which can compress leverage ratios and reduce the frequency of large cascading liquidations. However, the initial launch phase often sees elevated volatility as price discovery between new and existing venues equalizes.

If Kalshi successfully onboards a meaningful share of retail and institutional flow, BTC and ETH perp funding rates across the broader market could see compression — particularly during periods of elevated long bias — as arbitrageurs balance positions across venues. Open interest fragmentation across more platforms also tends to reduce the impact of any single large liquidation event, which is broadly stabilizing for market structure.

The prediction market-to-derivatives pipeline also introduces a trader demographic that skews toward event-driven speculation rather than technical momentum plays. That behavioral profile could produce distinct funding rate patterns around macro catalysts — FOMC decisions, ETF flow data, on-chain metrics — compared to the momentum-driven dynamics typical of offshore perp markets.