Ethereum Stalls Below Key MAs: Perp Market Outlook

Ethereum is struggling to establish any meaningful upside traction in May 2026, with repeated rejections at the descending trendline on the daily chart reinforcing the view that sellers remain firmly in control. After a brief April recovery that generated some optimism among spot and derivatives traders alike, ETH has reverted to a familiar pattern: lower highs, inconsistent volume, and a failure to reclaim critical moving average levels. For perpetual futures traders, the technical structure here demands discipline — this is not a market rewarding aggressive long positioning.

Where Is ETH Technically Right Now?

The rejection from the descending trendline resistance arrived almost precisely at the upper boundary of the prevailing downtrend structure. More critically, ETH failed to challenge the 200-day moving average before sellers reasserted control — a stark contrast to Bitcoin's relative resilience. The 100-day moving average also remains overhead resistance, and the asset has lost support above the 50-day moving average, which now serves as the next major line in the sand for bulls.

The RSI is currently hovering in the low-50 range, a reading that reflects fading momentum rather than the kind of breakout strength needed to flip bearish structure. Volume remains erratic, offering no confirmation of sustained accumulation. The pattern of lower highs since the broader market downturn continues to print, which statistically favors bearish continuation over a durable recovery.

How Does This Affect ETH Perpetual Markets?

For perp traders, the technical setup translates directly into elevated risk on leveraged longs. With ETH printing lower highs and sitting below multiple key moving averages, funding rates on major venues are likely to remain flat-to-slightly-negative — reflecting a market where longs are not willing to pay a premium to hold exposure. Any short-term bounce that fails to reclaim the 100-day moving average on a daily close basis should be treated as a potential short entry rather than a trend reversal signal.

Open interest positioning is particularly relevant here. If ETH closes decisively below the 50-day moving average, a cascade of long liquidations becomes a realistic scenario, potentially accelerating a move back toward the March 2026 lows. Traders should monitor liquidation heatmaps closely around that level. Conversely, a confirmed reclaim of the descending trendline — with volume — would be the minimum requirement before any meaningful long bias can be justified.

Compared to BTC, ETH's relative underperformance is a concern for altcoin perp desks broadly. When the market's second-largest asset by open interest shows this degree of structural weakness, it typically suppresses risk appetite across the altcoin perpetuals complex, compressing funding and increasing the probability of long squeezes on correlated assets.

What Blackperp's Engine Shows

As of May 2026, Blackperp's live engine is reading ETHUSDT with a neutral bias at 46% confidence, operating in a ranging regime with medium volatility — consistent with the indecisive price action described above. However, several signals beneath the surface paint a more cautious picture for longs.

Taker aggression is registering at 100 — classified as hyper-aggressive — with a net reading of -5.67, indicating active stampede selling pressure in the order flow. This is a meaningful warning sign: despite a Breakout Entry signal firing at 72% confidence (bullish, citing consolidation, volume, and bid pressure), the aggressive sell-side taker flow is directly undermining that setup. Traders should treat the breakout signal with caution until taker aggression normalizes.

ETH's percentile rank sits at the 17th percentile, reflecting strong bearish momentum on a relative basis. Relative strength versus BTC comes in at -0.292x, confirming ETH is underperforming Bitcoin on the session. The one positive macro input: the Nasdaq 100 is up +2.45% at $712.00, which provides a mild risk-on tailwind — but it has not been enough to shift ETH's internal market structure.

On the NEAR front, the engine flags an even more stressed setup: lean short bias at 46% confidence, with signal consensus at 75% bearish and a percentile rank at the 3rd percentile — extreme bearish momentum. A mean reversion z-score of -2.27 indicates the asset is stretched to the downside, with a fade signal active. For perp traders in NEARUSDT, the risk of a short squeeze exists, but the dominant signal remains bearish until structure improves.